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As Donald Trump makes a hypothetical return to the US presidency, the impact would likely be felt worldwide, including in Kenya, where US relations have held significance since independence in 1963.
Under Jomo Kenyatta, Kenya’s foreign policy gravitated toward the West, forming the foundation for a strategic US partnership.
In contrast, Tanzania under President Julius Nyerere pursued socialist ideals and South-South alliances, placing the two nations in distinct geopolitical camps.
Kenya’s strong, pragmatic ties with the US have been characterised by security cooperation, economic investments, and alignment on global issues like counter-terrorism. A Trump presidency, however, could prompt President William Ruto to reconsider Kenya’s regional and global alignments.
Kenya’s Western-oriented foreign policy, reflects strategic choices that have brought benefits in trade, aid, and defense. The US considers Kenya a vital East African ally, particularly in counterterrorism efforts in the Horn of Africa.
Kenya’s military presence and intelligence capabilities have complemented US efforts against regional threats like Al Shabaab. This partnership has also expanded under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) and the Prosper Africa programme, strengthening economic ties and supporting Kenya’s goal to reach middle-income status.
President Ruto’s relationship with the Joe Biden administration represented an enhanced chapter in this legacy. Biden emphasized partnerships grounded in mutual respect, democracy, and human rights—a message resonating with Dr Ruto’s vision of economic development and regional stability.
High-level engagements earlier this year suggested Kenya was central in climate talks, economic reforms, and peace efforts, positioning Dr Ruto to benefit from Mr Biden’s pro-Africa agenda.
A Trump administration could shift the US-Kenya dynamic with a more transactional foreign policy approach.
Trump’s first term saw African states navigating erratic diplomacy and shifting priorities. Under Trump’s “America First” stance, Kenya might see diminished cooperation on long-term goals such as climate and regional stability.
This unpredictability may lead President Ruto to consider a cautious or diversified foreign policy stance, potentially realigning Kenya’s global partnerships.
Trump’s focus on reduced multilateral engagement could impact ongoing programmes like Pepfar and counter-terrorism funding.
For Dr Ruto, who invested in deepening US ties, a Trump-led Washington could prompt him to balance relations with the US while exploring alternative alliances that offset the risk of instability in US-Kenya relations.
If traditional benefits from the US wane, Kenya may strengthen ties with other powers, including the EU, whose African development and climate initiatives align well with Kenya’s needs. China, already a significant player in Kenya’s infrastructure, could also become a more prominent partner under Dr Ruto’s pragmatic foreign policy.
Africa’s trend toward multi-alignment strategies that reduce dependency on any single global power may appeal to Ruto as a way to balance Kenya’s economic and diplomatic interests.
A shift away from the US would need to be carefully managed. The longstanding US-Kenya relationship has been a cornerstone of Kenya’s foreign policy, and Dr Ruto would be cautious not to alienate Washington completely. If US influence in Kenya weakens, East Africa could become more susceptible to competing external interests.
With the Horn of Africa facing ongoing security challenges, a less engaged US presence might mean reduced coordination on counter-terrorism and peacekeeping. Kenya would likely strengthen continental military partnerships, relying more on the African Union and regional alliances to address potential security gaps.
Kenya stands at a crossroads, a cautious recalibration of its foreign policy could enable Dr Ruto to protect national interests while fostering partnerships that reduce dependency on any single actor. Such a strategy would allow Kenya to maintain its long-standing Western ties while cautiously engaging emerging powers that complement its development goals.
The resilience of US-Kenya relations will depend on how both nations navigate this evolving landscape. For Kenya, the path forward may involve balancing existing partnerships with new alliances that can withstand future shifts in global power dynamics.
Whether Trump’s idiosyncratic approach will force Kenya to pivot or adapt within its historical alignment remains to be seen, but the outcome will shape East Africa’s geopolitical scene for years to come.
The writer has completed Master of Science in African Studies at the University of Oxford, focusing on African Politics – Kenya
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