TLDR:
- Bernstein predicts Bitcoin price of $80-90k if Trump wins, $30-40k if Harris wins
- Trump leads Harris 52% to 47% on Polymarket predictions platform
- Trump vocal about making US “bitcoin and crypto capital of the world”
- Harris hasn’t addressed crypto in speeches or policy statements
- Positive regulatory environment could remove barriers for financial institutions
The upcoming U.S. presidential election could have a major impact on the price of Bitcoin, according to analysts at Bernstein, a research and brokerage firm.
In a recent report, the firm predicts that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could see drastically different price trajectories depending on who wins the White House in November.
- Bernstein analysts estimate that if Republican candidate Donald Trump emerges victorious, Bitcoin could reach new highs in the $80,000 to $90,000 range by the end of the fourth quarter of 2024.
- However, if current Vice President Kamala Harris wins the election, they expect Bitcoin to potentially drop to the $30,000 to $40,000 range.
The stark difference in price predictions stems from the candidates’ differing stances on cryptocurrency. Trump has been vocal about his support for making the United States a leader in the crypto space.
He has mentioned digital assets in policy speeches and outlined plans to make the U.S. a “Bitcoin mining powerhouse.”
Trump has also discussed appointing a crypto-friendly chair to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and creating a national strategic Bitcoin reserve.
In contrast, Harris has not addressed cryptocurrency in her speeches or policy statements. This lack of clear positioning on crypto issues has led analysts to predict a less favorable environment for digital assets under a Harris administration.
Current prediction markets seem to favor a Trump victory. On the decentralized predictions platform Polymarket, Trump currently leads Harris by 52% to 47%.
Trump is also ahead in several key swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. However, Harris maintains a lead in Michigan and Wisconsin.
The crypto industry has faced significant challenges in recent years, including regulatory hurdles and a tough macroeconomic environment. High interest rates have drained liquidity from decentralized finance platforms, while regulatory actions against major crypto companies have eroded trust in the sector.
Despite these headwinds, Bitcoin has shown resilience, rising 112% over the past year. Bernstein analysts argue that a favorable regulatory environment could remove risk barriers for financial institutions, allowing digital assets to compete more effectively with traditional assets for institutional investment.
The potential for such a wide price swing based on election results highlights the continued volatility and regulatory uncertainty surrounding cryptocurrencies. It also underscores the growing importance of U.S. politics in shaping the future of the digital asset industry.
Bernstein has previously set ambitious long-term price targets for Bitcoin, including $200,000 by the end of 2025, $500,000 by the end of 2029, and $1 million by the end of 2033.
These projections suggest the firm’s analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, regardless of short-term political outcomes.
The U.S. presidential election is scheduled for November 5, 2024. As the campaigns progress, both candidates may further clarify their positions on cryptocurrency regulation and adoption, potentially providing more insight into the future of digital assets in the United States.
