TLDR
- Prediction markets favor Governor Tim Walz over Senator JD Vance in VP debate
- Polymarket shows 72% of bettors believe Walz will win
- Top predicted topics include abortion, immigration, and inflation
- Offshore betting platform BetOnline also favors Walz
- Bettors expect the debate to be amicable with candidates likely to shake hands
As the vice presidential debate between Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Senator JD Vance approaches, prediction markets and betting platforms are showing a clear preference for the incumbent.
This article examines the current trends in political betting and the expected topics for tonight’s debate.
Polymarket, the largest prediction market platform, indicates that 72% of bettors believe Walz will win the debate.
This platform saw over $533 million in trading volume last month, with nearly 90% of its activity related to politics. Smaller prediction markets like Manifold Markets show similar trends, with 76% favoring Walz.
These markets also provide insights into the topics likely to be discussed during the debate.
For Vance, the top phrases expected to be mentioned are inflation (95% likelihood), abortion (92%), and border issues (90% likelihood of being mentioned 5 or more times).
Walz is anticipated to discuss abortion (95%), Israel (92%), and gun-related topics (87%).
Some more unusual bets are also available. There’s a 17% chance that Walz will say “tampon” during the debate, referring to his decision to provide female sanitary products in public school restrooms.
On Manifold Markets, bettors are wagering on whether the candidates will shake hands (96% likelihood), mention the Iran-Israel conflict (94%), or if Vance will use the words “socialism” or “socialist” (92%).
While betting on political events is illegal in the United States, offshore platforms like BetOnline are offering odds on the debate outcome.
On this platform, Walz is favored with odds of -225, meaning a bettor would need to wager $225 to win $100. Vance is considered the underdog with +165 odds, where a $100 bet would return $165 if he wins.
Some platforms are even offering bets on more unusual occurrences. For example, BetOnline has odds on whether Walz or Vance will say the word “cat” or “cats” first, a reference to Vance’s previous comments about immigrants in Springfield.
Despite the competitive nature of the debate, most bettors across various platforms expect the event to be cordial.
There is a high likelihood that the candidates will shake hands, according to predictions from BetOnline, Polymarket, and Manifold.
It’s important to note that while prediction markets and betting odds can provide interesting insights, they are not guaranteed predictors of actual outcomes.
These markets reflect the collective opinions and expectations of bettors rather than scientific polls or expert analysis.
The vice presidential debate is scheduled for tonight, and it will give voters an opportunity to hear directly from the candidates on various issues.
While the betting markets favor Walz, the actual performance of both candidates during the debate will ultimately determine the public’s perception of their readiness for the role of vice president.
